FPP_P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

This report delivers the forward estimated residual cost rate based on P5min runs. These high-level estimates (i.e. assuming that all is unused FCAS) will be provided for each constraint for each 5 minute pre-dispatch interval.

Column Schema

CONSTRAINTID

Constraint ID (binding constraint ID from FCAS data used in FPP calculations)

SQL Type: VARCHAR2(20) Polars Type: pl.Categorical

This column is mandatory, and a primary key.

Examples:

F_I+LREG_0210
F_I+NIL_APD_TL_L5
F_I+RREG_0220
F_MAIN++LREG_0210
F_MAIN++RREG_0220
F_MAIN+LREG_0210
F_MAIN+RREG_0220
F_T+LREG_0050
F_T+RREG_0050
F_TASCAP_LREG_0210

INTERVAL_DATETIME

Date and time of the trading interval (DD/MM/YYYY HH24:MI:SS) fixed to the UTC+10 time zone (NEM time)

SQL Type: DATE Polars Type: pl.Datetime()

This column is mandatory, and a primary key.

Example: 2026/09/28 19:30:00

RUN_DATETIME

The run date and time of the 5 minute predispatch case that was the trigger for the constraint FCAS processor execution (as the FCAS requirement data is the basis of these forward estimates)

SQL Type: DATE Polars Type: pl.Datetime()

This column is mandatory, and a primary key.

Example: 2026/09/28 19:05:00

RUNNO

The 5 minute predispatch case run number that was the trigger for the constraint FCAS processor execution (as the FCAS requirement data is the basis for these forward estimates)

SQL Type: NUMBER(5) Polars Type: pl.UInt32

This column is mandatory, and a primary key.

Example: 1

VERSIONNO

The version number of the effective default contribution factor for the unit / constraint combination taken from the FPP_FORECAST_DEFAULT_CF table

SQL Type: NUMBER(5) Polars Type: pl.UInt32

This column is mandatory, and a primary key.

Example: 131

BIDTYPE

Bid type (the bid type saved in relation to constraint ID from FCAS data used in FPP calculations)

The SQL type is VARCHAR2(10). This is actually a factor/enum, with values:

ENERGY
LOWERREG
LOWER60SEC
RAISE5MIN
LOWER5MIN
LOWER6SEC
RAISE60SEC
RAISE6SEC
RAISEREG
RAISE1SEC
LOWER1SEC

This column is not mandatory.

EST_UNUSED_FCAS

Estimated unused recovery FCAS in AUD/MWh (the forward financial estimate of the recovery of unused FCAS, assuming that all is unused FCAS). This value will be either 0 (nil), or a negative value (debit) only. For details on the calculation, please see FPP procedure and supporting documentation. Please note that there may be cases where there is not yet a residual default contribution factor for the constraint (for example if there is a new constraint binding in p5min that has not yet bound in dispatch). In these scenarios there will be no EST_UNUSED_FCAS row sent for the constraint, as this is currently incalculable until a corresponding residual default contribution factor is calculated from a dispatch run with this constraint binding.

SQL Type: NUMBER(18,8) Polars Type: pl.Float64

This column is not mandatory.

Examples: -0.00003125, -0.70108675

LASTCHANGED

Last date and time record changed

For more information, see the dedicated documentation page.

SQL Type: DATE Polars Type: pl.Datetime()

This column is not mandatory.

Example: 2026/09/28 19:00:40

RELEVANT_REGIONS

Relevant regions (a comma separated list of the relevant regions for the constraint from FCAS data)

SQL Type: VARCHAR2(200) Polars Type: str

This column is not mandatory.

Examples:

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1
NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1
TAS1

New Data Timing

At the completion of a P5MIN estimation calculation run (i.e. every 5 mins)

Code Examples

Polars

Casting is enums, categoricals etc is not essential, but may speed up parsing. Swapping int for pl.UInt16, pl.Int32 would also speed up parsing. However some of the datatypes are inferred, so they may be wrong.

This code deduplicates for you. Deduplication is normally only required across multiple months.

This code assumes that all columns are present, which may not be true for older files.

import polars as pl
import polars.selectors as cs

# e.g. "2029/03/15 00:05:00"
dt_s_fmt = "%Y/%m/%d %H:%M:%S"

csv_paths = ["SOMEFILE.CSV", "OTHERFILE.CSV"]

lf = (
    pl.concat(
        [
            pl.scan_csv(
                csv_path,  # must be unzipped beforehand
                skip_rows=1,  # skip the header
                infer_schema=False,  # much faster
            )
            .filter(cs.by_index(0) == "D")  # drop the footer
            .select(~cs.by_index(range(4)))  # drop metadata columns
            for csv_path in csv_paths
        ],
        how="diagonal_relaxed",
    )
    .with_columns(
        pl.col("INTERVAL_DATETIME", "RUN_DATETIME", "LASTCHANGED").str.strptime(
            pl.Datetime, dt_s_fmt
        ),
    )
    .cast(
        {
            "CONSTRAINTID": pl.Categorical,
            "RUNNO": int,  # or pl.UInt32
            "VERSIONNO": int,  # or pl.UInt32
            "BIDTYPE": pl.Enum(
                [
                    "ENERGY",
                    "LOWERREG",
                    "LOWER60SEC",
                    "RAISE5MIN",
                    "LOWER5MIN",
                    "LOWER6SEC",
                    "RAISE60SEC",
                    "RAISE6SEC",
                    "RAISEREG",
                    "RAISE1SEC",
                    "LOWER1SEC",
                ]
            ),
            "EST_UNUSED_FCAS": pl.Float64,
            "RELEVANT_REGIONS": str,
        }
    )
    # Deduplicate
    # We want one row per ['CONSTRAINTID', 'INTERVAL_DATETIME', 'RUN_DATETIME', 'RUNNO', 'VERSIONNO']
    # Tie-breaker: greatest value of LASTCHANGED
    .sort(LASTCHANGED, descending=False)
    .unique(
        subset=[
            "CONSTRAINTID",
            "INTERVAL_DATETIME",
            "RUN_DATETIME",
            "RUNNO",
            "VERSIONNO",
        ],
        keep="last",
    )
)

Nemosis

This table is not yet available in Nemosis.

Example File

From PUBLIC_ARCHIVE_FPP_P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE_FILE01_202609010000.zip

Table without MetadataTable with MetadataRaw Text without Metadata

RUN_DATETIME	RUNNO	INTERVAL_DATETIME	CONSTRAINTID	VERSIONNO	BIDTYPE	RELEVANT_REGIONS	EST_UNUSED_FCAS	LASTCHANGED
2026/09/30 15:25:00	1	2026/09/30 16:15:00	F_TASCAP_RREG_0220	131	RAISEREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1	-0.01916605	2026/09/30 15:20:50
2026/09/30 15:25:00	1	2026/09/30 16:20:00	F_I+LREG_0210	131	LOWERREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1	-0.00693529	2026/09/30 15:20:50
2026/09/30 15:25:00	1	2026/09/30 16:20:00	F_T+RREG_0050	131	RAISEREG	TAS1	-0.03199469	2026/09/30 15:20:50
2026/09/30 15:25:00	1	2026/09/30 16:20:00	F_TASCAP_LREG_0210	131	LOWERREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1	-0.0009937	2026/09/30 15:20:50
2026/09/30 15:25:00	1	2026/09/30 16:20:00	F_TASCAP_RREG_0220	131	RAISEREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1	-0.01892661	2026/09/30 15:20:50
2026/09/30 15:30:00	1	2026/09/30 15:30:00	F_T+LREG_0050	131	LOWERREG	TAS1	-0.03095561	2026/09/30 15:26:05
2026/09/30 15:30:00	1	2026/09/30 15:30:00	F_T+RREG_0050	131	RAISEREG	TAS1	-0.03247322	2026/09/30 15:26:05
2026/09/30 15:30:00	1	2026/09/30 15:30:00	F_TASCAP_LREG_0210	131	LOWERREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1	-0.00711288	2026/09/30 15:26:05
2026/09/30 15:30:00	1	2026/09/30 15:30:00	F_TASCAP_RREG_0220	131	RAISEREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1	-0.01375404	2026/09/30 15:26:05
2026/09/30 15:30:00	1	2026/09/30 15:35:00	F_I+LREG_0210	131	LOWERREG	NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1	-0.00888076	2026/09/30 15:26:05
2026/09/30 15:30:00	1	2026/09/30 15:35:00	F_T+LREG_0050	131	LOWERREG	TAS1	-0.48591717	2026/09/30 15:26:05
...

C

SETP.WORLD

DVD_FPP_P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

AEMO

PUBLIC

2026/10/09

17:50:12

001791532212568

MONTHLY_ARCHIVE

001791532212568

I

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

RUN_DATETIME

RUNNO

INTERVAL_DATETIME

CONSTRAINTID

VERSIONNO

BIDTYPE

RELEVANT_REGIONS

EST_UNUSED_FCAS

LASTCHANGED

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:25:00

1

2026/09/30 16:15:00

F_TASCAP_RREG_0220

131

RAISEREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1

-0.01916605

2026/09/30 15:20:50

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:25:00

1

2026/09/30 16:20:00

F_I+LREG_0210

131

LOWERREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1

-0.00693529

2026/09/30 15:20:50

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:25:00

1

2026/09/30 16:20:00

F_T+RREG_0050

131

RAISEREG

TAS1

-0.03199469

2026/09/30 15:20:50

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:25:00

1

2026/09/30 16:20:00

F_TASCAP_LREG_0210

131

LOWERREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1

-0.0009937

2026/09/30 15:20:50

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:25:00

1

2026/09/30 16:20:00

F_TASCAP_RREG_0220

131

RAISEREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1

-0.01892661

2026/09/30 15:20:50

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

F_T+LREG_0050

131

LOWERREG

TAS1

-0.03095561

2026/09/30 15:26:05

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

F_T+RREG_0050

131

RAISEREG

TAS1

-0.03247322

2026/09/30 15:26:05

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

F_TASCAP_LREG_0210

131

LOWERREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1

-0.00711288

2026/09/30 15:26:05

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

F_TASCAP_RREG_0220

131

RAISEREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1

-0.01375404

2026/09/30 15:26:05

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

1

2026/09/30 15:35:00

F_I+LREG_0210

131

LOWERREG

NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1

-0.00888076

2026/09/30 15:26:05

D

FPP

P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE

1

2026/09/30 15:30:00

1

2026/09/30 15:35:00

F_T+LREG_0050

131

LOWERREG

TAS1

-0.48591717

2026/09/30 15:26:05

...

C

END OF REPORT

1003

RUN_DATETIME,RUNNO,INTERVAL_DATETIME,CONSTRAINTID,VERSIONNO,BIDTYPE,RELEVANT_REGIONS,EST_UNUSED_FCAS,LASTCHANGED
"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:15:00",F_TASCAP_RREG_0220,131,RAISEREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.01916605,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_I+LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1",-0.00693529,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_T+RREG_0050,131,RAISEREG,TAS1,-0.03199469,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_TASCAP_LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.0009937,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_TASCAP_RREG_0220,131,RAISEREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.01892661,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_T+LREG_0050,131,LOWERREG,TAS1,-0.03095561,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_T+RREG_0050,131,RAISEREG,TAS1,-0.03247322,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_TASCAP_LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.00711288,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_TASCAP_RREG_0220,131,RAISEREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.01375404,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:35:00",F_I+LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1",-0.00888076,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:35:00",F_T+LREG_0050,131,LOWERREG,TAS1,-0.48591717,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
...

Raw Text with Metadata

C,SETP.WORLD,DVD_FPP_P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,AEMO,PUBLIC,2026/10/09,17:50:12,001791532212568,MONTHLY_ARCHIVE,001791532212568
I,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,RUN_DATETIME,RUNNO,INTERVAL_DATETIME,CONSTRAINTID,VERSIONNO,BIDTYPE,RELEVANT_REGIONS,EST_UNUSED_FCAS,LASTCHANGED
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:15:00",F_TASCAP_RREG_0220,131,RAISEREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.01916605,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_I+LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1",-0.00693529,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_T+RREG_0050,131,RAISEREG,TAS1,-0.03199469,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_TASCAP_LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.0009937,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:25:00",1,"2026/09/30 16:20:00",F_TASCAP_RREG_0220,131,RAISEREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.01892661,"2026/09/30 15:20:50"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_T+LREG_0050,131,LOWERREG,TAS1,-0.03095561,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_T+RREG_0050,131,RAISEREG,TAS1,-0.03247322,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_TASCAP_LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.00711288,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",F_TASCAP_RREG_0220,131,RAISEREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,VIC1",-0.01375404,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:35:00",F_I+LREG_0210,131,LOWERREG,"NSW1,QLD1,SA1,TAS1,VIC1",-0.00888076,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,"2026/09/30 15:30:00",1,"2026/09/30 15:35:00",F_T+LREG_0050,131,LOWERREG,TAS1,-0.48591717,"2026/09/30 15:26:05"
...
C,"END OF REPORT",1003

Availability

Visibility: Public

This table is in the public monthly MMSDM archive.

I have collated the list of all those files into one place, in this CSV metadata file. (Columns year, month, url, compressed_size in bytes).

The earliest available data is month 1 of 2025. The most recent available data is month 9 of 2026.

Every month in between has a file. (No gaps.)

Data Size

Each year of data is approximately 44 MB when zipped, 440 MB as unzipped CSV.

Deduplication and PDR Loader Configuration

The primary keys are:

CONSTRAINTID
INTERVAL_DATETIME
RUN_DATETIME
RUNNO
VERSIONNO

The transaction type is "insert", which means that you will usually not see duplicate data. If you do, you can deduplicate based on the primary keys, without sorting first. Rows from different files with the same primary keys should have the same values.

PDR Loader configuration is:

Report Name	Report Subtype	Version
FPP	P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE	1

This means that the CSV files start with metadata columns:

I,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,...
D,FPP,P5_FWD_EST_RESIDUALRATE,1,...

Links

This page as JSON (schema documented here, but may change)

Download a JSON Schema specification for this table.

Official AEMO schema documentation

Other Information

Package: FPP